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People turning 65 will not retire quietly into the background, predicts John Parker
约翰·帕克（John Parker）预测，即将迈入65岁的人们不会悄悄隐退
The year 2020 will mark the beginning of the decade of the yold, or the “young old”, as the Japanese call people aged between 65 and 75. The height of the baby boom, the period of high fertility in rich countries after the second world war, was 1955-60. The traditional retirement age is 65, and 2020-25 is 65 years later. One might therefore expect peak retirement for baby-boomers in the coming years—except that they are not retiring. By continuing to work, and staying socially engaged, the boomers, in their new guise as the young old, will change the world, as they have done several times before at different stages of their lives.
二〇二〇年将开启“悠得人”（yold）的十年。“悠得人”即“年轻老人”（young old），是日本人对65至75岁人群的指称。第二次世界大战后富裕国家的生育率飙升，这一“婴儿潮”的顶峰发生在1955至1960年。传统退休年龄是65岁，而2020至2025年正好是那时的65年后。因此，人们可能会预期未来几年出现婴儿潮一代的退休高峰。而事实是，他们还不会退休。“婴儿潮一代”会继续工作和积极投身社会，以“年轻老人”的新身份去改变世界，就像过去他们在人生不同阶段曾经多次做过的那样。
The yold are more numerous, healthier and wealthier than previous generations of seniors. There will be 134m 65- to 74-year-olds in rich countries in 2020 (11% of the population), up from 99m (8%) in 2000 (see chart). That is the fastest rate of growth of any large age group. Health worsens with age, but the yold are resisting the decline better than most: of the 3.7 years of increased life expectancy in rich countries between 2000 and 2015, says the World Health Organisation, 3.2 years were enjoyed in good health. The yold are also better off: between 1989 and 2013, the median wealth of families headed by someone over 62 in America rose by 40% to $210,000, while the wealth of all other age groups declined.
与前几代老年人相比，“悠得人”的数量更多，更健康，也更富有。2020年，富裕国家将有1.34亿65至74岁人群（占人口的11%），高于2000年的9900万（占8%）（见图表）。这是所有大型年龄段增长最快的一个。健康会随年龄增长恶化，但“悠得人”却比大多数以前的老人都更好地抵御了这种衰退：世卫组织称，2000至2015年间，富裕国家的预期寿命延长了3.7年，其中有3.2年是在良好的健康状态下度过的。“悠得人”也更富足：1989至2013年间，户主年龄在62岁以上的美国家庭的财富中位数增长了40%，达到21万美元，而与此同时所有其他年龄段的财富都下降了。
The yold are busier, too. In 2016 just over a fifth of people aged 65-69 were in work in rich countries, a figure that is rising fast. Working is one of the factors that are helping people stay healthy longer. A German study found that people who remain at work after the normal retirement age manage to slow the cognitive decline associated with old age and have a cognitive capacity of someone a year and a half younger.
悠得人也更忙碌。2016年，富裕国家65至69岁人群中略多于五分之一的人在工作，这个数字正在迅速攀升。工作是帮助人们延长健康状态的因素之一。德国一项研究发现，那些过了常规退休年龄还在工作的人延缓了自身与老龄有关的认知衰退，而拥有相当于比他们年轻一岁半的人的认知能力。
And miles to go before they sleep
来日且多
In short, the yold are not just any group of old people. They are challenging the traditional expectations of the retired as people who wear slippers and look after the grandchildren. That will disrupt consumer, service and financial markets.
简而言之，悠得人并非又一波寻常的老人。他们正在挑战人们对退了休的人穿着拖鞋、照看孙儿这种惯有的预期。而这将颠覆消费、服务和金融市场。
The over-60s are one of the fastest-growing groups of customers of the airline business. The yold are vital to the tourism industry because they spend much more, when taking a foreign holiday, than younger adults. They are also changing education. Harvard has more students at its Division for Continuing Education (for mature and retired students) than it does at the university itself. And, because of the importance of pensions, the yold are transforming insurance companies from passive distributors of fixed annuities to financial-service providers for customers who want to manage their pension pots more actively.
六十岁以上人群是航空业增长最快的客户群之一。悠得人对旅游业至关重要，因为他们在国外度假时的消费额比年轻成人多得多。他们也在改变教育。哈佛大学继续教育部（针对成熟和已退休的学生）的学生人数要比大学本身更多。而鉴于养老金的重要性，他们也在改变保险公司的角色：从固定年金的被动发放者，转变为服务那些想要更积极地管理养老金的客户的金融服务供应商。
The rise of the yold will be a boon to themselves, to economies and to societies. Many bosses and hr departments think productivity falls with age, but studies of truckmaking and insurance firms in Germany suggest older workers have, if anything, slightly above-average productivity—and that teams of workers from multiple generations are the most productive of all. Societies should be better off because public spending on health and pensions should be lower than expected, as people work longer and need less medical care.
悠得人的兴起对于他们自身、经济体和社会都是一种福音。许多老板和人力资源部门认为生产率会随年龄增长而下降，但是对德国卡车制造业和保险公司的研究表明，若要说有什么区别的话，老年员工的生产率略高于平均水平；而由来自不同代际的员工组成的团队生产率最高。社会应该会变得更富足，因为随着人们工作时间延长，医疗需求减少，公共医疗和养老金支出应该都会低于预期。
But for all this to happen, three big things will have to change, under pressure from the yold themselves. The most important is public attitudes towards older people, and in particular the expectation that 60-somethings ought to be putting their feet up and quietly retiring into the background. Many companies discriminate against older workers by offering training only to younger ones, or by limiting part-time employment and job-sharing. The yold will demand that companies become more age-friendly and, in the process, help change attitudes towards ageing itself.
但要让这一切真的发生，有三件大事必须改变——在悠得人自己施加的压力下。最重要的是公众对老年人的态度，尤其是认为60多岁的人就该停歇、悄然从社会大舞台上隐退的预期。许多企业都在变相歧视年长的员工，比如只为年轻员工提供培训，或者限制年长员工参与兼职和岗位分享。悠得人将要求公司变得更“高龄友善”，并在这一过程中帮助改变人们对于“变老”这件事本身的态度。
Government policies will have to change, too. The retirement age in many rich countries is still below the age to which many people want to work. The effective retirement age (the age at which people actually leave the workforce) is usually even lower. Public policy makes retirement a cliff edge, when it should be a ramp.
政府政策也必须改变。许多富裕国家的退休年龄仍低于很多人想继续工作的年龄。实际退休年龄（人们实际离开劳动力队伍的年龄）通常还要低。目前的公共政策使得退休呈现为一种断崖似节点，而它本该是一个缓坡。
Third, higher numbers of healthy yold people will require drastic changes in health spending. Most diseases of ageing are best met with prevention and lifestyle changes. But only about 2-3% of most countries’ health-care spending goes on prevention. That will have to rise, because although the yold will constitute a bulge of comparative health and activity over the next decade, by 2030 they will hit 75—and enter a long period of decline for which few rich countries are ready.
第三，健康悠得人的增长将要求医疗支出做出巨大的改变。大多数与衰老相关的疾病的最佳应对方式是预防和转变生活方式。但大多数国家的医疗支出只有约2%至3%用在了预防上。这个比例必须上升，因为尽管在未来十年中悠得人将构成一个相对健康有活力的激增人群，但到2030年他们将迈入75岁，进入一个长期衰退期，而没有几个富裕国家为此做好了准备。